Monday, 4 May 2020

CHINESE LOANS: DEBT-TRAP OR MUCH NEEDED INVESTMENT? AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE


Introduction:

China's commercial activities in Africa, such as investments, infrastructure projects and bank lending, have long attracted scrutiny and criticism. Critics have accused Beijing of practicing a new form of economic colonialism to gain control of the continent's valuable natural resources by luring unsuspecting African nations into so-called debt traps.

The meme - Chinese ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ - was born in a think tank in northern India in 2017. This meme quickly spread through the media, intelligence circles and Western governments.

By debt-trap diplomacy it is claimed that China intentionally extends excessive credit to another debtor country with the alleged intention of extracting economic or political concessions from the debtor country when it becomes unable to honor its debt obligations. The assumption seems to be that “China’s own economic and geostrategic interests are maximized when its lending partners are in distress.”

This paper will examine China's relationship with Africa to unravel the mystery of the so called debt trap allegation with view to verifying the authenticity of the allegation leveled against China.

Africa's Infrastructural Deficit:

Africa suffers from serious infrastructure deficit and needs serious investment from outside the continent to close the gap and investment from China is one of the few ways African countries can get financing for the infrastructure it so desperately needs.

The main types of infrastructure that these loans improve include roads, railways, dams and ports. Improved infrastructure favors internal trade, healthcare and education systems. Over four-fifths of China's investments are spent on infrastructure projects in underdeveloped and developing countries. According to the World Economic Forum, internal trade is the greatest opportunity for realizing Africa's economic growth potentials.

China is a world leader in infrastructure development, having undergone rapid economic growth since its reform and opening under Deng Xiaoping due to its infrastructure-based development strategy. Apart from extending credits, China's expertise in infrastructure development and know-how is part of the reason for the tilt towards China by many developing economies.

China has financed more than 3,000 strategic infrastructure projects in Africa and extended tens of billions of dollars in commercial loans to African governments and state-owned enterprises. China’s export of excess industrial capacity and its model of special economic zones have benefited the nascent manufacturing sector on the continent. An in-depth evaluation of Africa’s economic partnerships with the rest of the world in trade, investment stock, investment growth, infrastructure financing, and aid concluded that no other country matches the depth and breadth of Chinese engagement.

Much Chinese financing to Africa is associated with securing the continent’s natural resources. Using what is sometimes characterized as the “Angola Model,” China frequently provides low-interest loans to nations who rely on commodities, such as oil or mineral resources, as collateral. In these cases, the recipient nations usually suffer from low credit ratings and have great difficulty obtaining funding from the international financial market; China makes financing relatively available—with certain conditions.

Africa has long been exploited for its natural resources by the West and the relationship has always been that of unequal trading partners. China on the other hand, are newcomers trying to penetrate markets long exploited exclusively by Westerners for over two centuries. China has been able to penetrate the African continent by granting loans under less tenuous terms compared to the West.

The glaring reality is that Africa sees Chinese loans as more attractive as China treats same as business loans unlike the West which sees it as development aid with strings attached which sometimes involves direct interference in the debtor country's domestic affairs i.e. being forced to restructure i.e. devalue currency or implementation of austerity measures i.e. Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria or some other form of structural adjustment that sometimes lead to social instability in the debtor country.

Problems usually arise when the debtor nation is unable to pay back its loans in which case China may resort to realising the pledged asset. The readily cited instance is that of the Sri Lankan port at Hambantota where failure to service the loan resulted in a 99-year lease for $1.12 billion in 2017 and China’s control of the asset. But what is not told about this story is the fact that Sri Lanka faced a severe shortage of foreign reserves in light of upcoming debt servicing payments, due to the maturity of its international sovereign bonds in early 2019. The money obtained through leasing Hambantota port was used to strengthen Sri Lanka’s dollar reserves in 2017-18. In fact, the largest portion of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt was international sovereign bonds whilst Chinese loans constitute only little over 10% and most of that was in the form of concessionary loans. In a nutshell, Sri Lanka leased its port to China in order to settle its debt obligations not owed to China.

Evidence abounds of however of about 84 instances over the last 15 years, of China restructuring/waiving loans without taking possession of assets, including Ethiopia’s third such restructuring. The argument for bad-faith Chinese lending also ignores Venezuela—the single largest Chinese debtor country where there still isn’t Chinese takeover of flagship state assets.

Dependence or death-trap?

The reality of Africa’s debt to China is not particularly remarkable when taken against the aggregate of sources of Africa’s external debt stock. A few African countries: Angola, DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan account for over half of Chinese lending in Africa so it's not like the entire continent is under the threat of a take over as some have hysterically alleged.

In fact, the allegation of debt-trap in regards to Africa is farfetched as the bulk of Africa's debt is not owed to China. There is now research that concludes that, “Chinese loans are not currently a major contributor to debt distress in Africa”. A SAIS-CARI report from August 2018 found that "Chinese loans are not currently a major contributor to debt distress in Africa.

In the 2015 and 2017 records of World Bank, Africa owes large sums of debt not only to China but also from other lenders with the debts owed to China constituting just 20% o the total debt stock. Africa's debts from multilateral lenders amount to 35%, 32% from private lenders, and around 13% from various other governments.

Higher interest rates of about 55% from the private sectors prompted Africa to go to China for loans, which is around only 17%. Also, the debts owed of the African countries from China are allocated for investments on sectors needing critical development and growth and not just for consumption. China in exchange just demands payment in the form of jobs, and natural resources. In economic theory and practice, any country can borrow from another country to finance its economic development. However, it is not always easy to find someone who will lend money even for logical reasons. The global competition on which country is best to invest money in is in fact, a country's sign of financial strength, which is why Africa does not consider the relationship with China as a debt-trap.

Between 2008 and 2018, Chinese FDI in Africa rose from $7.8 billion to $46 billion, according to official data. China could have expanded its trade with Africa and maintained its access to raw materials without committing nearly $200 billion in bilateral loans and FDI but it did anyway and Africa is grateful for this much needed investment.

China's role in Africa's infrastructural development is not lost on Africa as the instances below will buttress.

China is financing the new capital of Egypt, New Cairo.  In an interview, Gen. Ahmed Zaki Abdeen, who heads the Egyptian state-owned company overseeing the new capital, criticized American reluctance to invest in Egypt, saying: “Stop talking to us about human rights,” he says. “Come and do business with us. The Chinese are coming — they are seeking win-win situations. Welcome to the Chinese.

Also, in response to the negative responses from other Western powers, at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in September 2018, there was overwhelming African political support of the continued relationship with China. South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa stated that “In the values that it promotes, in the manner that it operates and in the impact that it has on African countries, FOCAC refutes the view that a new colonialism is taking hold in Africa, as our detractors would have us believe.” Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta spoke on his appreciation for the Chinese support in the infrastructure development and Botswana's president Mokgweetsi Masisi exclaimed, “To China, her president and citizens, we admire and hold you in very high regard”.

Western fear of China's rise:

Every few years in the West – in the media and in political circles – there is a moral panic about the rise of China. Africa often plays a central role in this: as a supposedly predatory China is counterposed against representations of hapless and powerless African victims. This is primarily the reason why China is now routinely accused of “debt-trap diplomacy,” (paywall) or intentionally “miring supposed partners, particularly developing countries, in unsustainable debt-based relations.”

Trade between African countries and China has also affected ties between African countries and other continents, especially Europe and North America. The West wants to counter balance the influence of China in Africa and a lot of propaganda has been deployed to achieve this by painting China as a predator preying on a hapless people.

Human emotions, including negativity bias, prime us to think in certain ways and Africans have been primed by Western propaganda to see the Chinese as predators rather than as development partners.

The language of “debt-trap diplomacy” resonates more in Western countries, especially the United States, and is rooted in anxiety about China’s rise as a global power rather than in the reality of genuine concern for Africa or other developing economies. As Evan Feigenbaum of the Paulson Institute think tank writes, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has counseled countries against taking Chinese money, warning it will lead countries into a debilitating cycle of debt, and asset-stripping. The US Department of Defense accuses the Chinese of predatory economic practices.

Infact, former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, claimed in a statement to unveil the new U.S. strategy for Africa that China is poised to take over Zambia's national power utility due to the government's failure to settle outstanding debts. The Zambian government however refuted this and officially requested the U.S. government to retract the "misinformation" in John Bolton's statement over China-takeover-assets allegations insisting that Zambia has not offered any of its assets as bilateral or multilateral loans and that there were no state enterprises at risk of being repossessed.

Conclusion:

The relationship between China and Africa is strictly business. China offers loans and African countries themselves then decide what they offer as collateral. So if your government decides to give up a port or farmland to get a bigger loan, and then fail to pay back the money, don’t blame the lender.

African countries enter these agreements by their own volition. To suggest that China is colonising Africa is to suggest that Africans are too stupid to know what they are signing, that they don’t understand business. Africans are not stupid. There is simply a lot of corruption in Africa. That is the problem not that they are utterly stupid.

The accusations that China is colonising Africa is not correct. The simple fact is that China is setting up trade infrastructure in Africa by investing in Africa. China's thinking seems to be to improve the purchasing power of Africa for the benefit of China's industrial output. This ought to be a win-win situation if well taken advantage of by Africa.

In a nutshell, there is really no debt-trap per se rather what we have is more of a dependency. Africa is highly dependent on China for its finance which in itself forebodes trouble. As many experts see it, the dependency of the developing countries like Africa to China in exchange of opportunistic loan offers is a sure way to deny the people of its sovereignty and self-sustaining growth in the longer-term scope. So Africa needs to wean itself of over dependence on Chinese loans while implementing policies to stimulate their internal economies.


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